2025-12-05 14:01:34
Borussia Moenchengladbach (3-5-4) and Mainz 05 (1-8-3) will face off today at 2:30 p.m. EST at Mewa Arena in Mainz.
Mainz is favored at a +140 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-151o / +113u) goals.
Let’s get into my M’gladbach vs. Mainz prediction.
M’gladbach vs. Mainz Prediction
Pick: Haris Tabaković to Score
My M’gladbach vs. Mainz best bet is for Haris Tabaković to score at any time.
M’gladbach vs. Mainz Odds
Friday, December 5, 2025
2:30 p.m. EST
–
| M’gladbach Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|
+0.5 -190 |
2.5 -151o / +113u |
+180 |
| Mainz Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|
-0.5 +130 |
2.5 -151o / +113u |
+140 |
M’gladbach vs. Mainz Picks, Parlay
Pick: M’gladbach to Win (+190 at bet365)
Pick: Haris Tabaković to Score (+175 at bet365)
Pick: Gladbach +0.25 Asian Handicap (-125 at bet365)
The case for Gladbach’s Haris Tabaković to find the net is compelling. The striker has been a consistent source of offense for his club this season, with a remarkable record that suggests he can exploit a vulnerable Mainz defense. Tabaković has scored seven goals in his 11 Bundesliga appearances, an average of one goal every 102 minutes of play. His recent form is particularly sharp; in his last seven matches for club and country, he has scored seven times.
This offensive prowess meets a Mainz defense in complete disarray. The home side has the third-worst expected goals against (xGA) in the Bundesliga at 22.01, a clear indicator of the quality chances they concede. In their last nine domestic matches, they have lost seven and allowed an average of 2.33 goals per game. Their recent 4-0 defeat to Freiburg, where they were out-shot 23 to one, underscores their defensive fragility. Tabaković’s physical presence and clinical finish make him the ideal forward to capitalize on such weaknesses.
While Mainz has home-field advantage, their performance at Mewa Arena has been poor, as they still await their first Bundesliga win there this season. Their attack has also been anemic, as the club generates the fewest shots on target per match in the league with just 2.7. This lack of offensive threat will likely allow Gladbach to focus on their attack, creating more opportunities for Tabaković.
M’gladbach vs. Mainz Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| M’gladbach | Draw | Mainz |
|---|---|---|
| 33.7% | 24.1% | 42.3% |
Projected Total Goals
| M’gladbach | Total Goals | Mainz |
|---|---|---|
| 1.36 | 1.94 | 1.58 |
M’gladbach vs. Mainz Betting Analysis
The contrast between these two clubs could not be more stark. Gladbach has reversed a difficult start to the season and collected 10 points from their last four Bundesliga contests, a run that includes two consecutive road victories where they outscored opponents 7-0. A hard-fought draw against second-place Leipzig last week further demonstrates their improved resilience. Eugen Polanski’s squad has consistently created better chances than its opponents recently, with an average expected goals (xG) of 2.21 over their last five league games.
Conversely, Mainz is in a crisis. The club has not won a domestic game since September and has lost seven of its last nine. Their defense is a major concern, as they have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their six home league matches this season. While Mainz tends to see more of the ball, measured by field tilt, Gladbach is well-suited to exploit this. The visitors have scored the third-most counterattack goals in the Bundesliga and will look to strike quickly against a porous Mainz backline.
Historically, Mainz has had the upper hand in this head-to-head, with an unbeaten streak over the past nine encounters. However, past results mean little when current form is so divergent. Recent meetings have been high-scoring affairs, with an average of 3.2 goals over the last five games, and both teams have scored in four of those five. Given Mainz’s defensive woes and Gladbach’s renewed offensive confidence, this trend of goals seems likely to continue. The visitors have the momentum and the firepower to end their winless streak against a team at the bottom of the table.
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