2025-09-30 11:11:36
Benfica and Chelsea will face off today at 3:00 p.m. EDT at Stamford Bridge in London, England.
Chelsea is favored at a -163 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-150o / +120u) goals.
Let’s get into my Benfica vs. Chelsea prediction.
Benfica vs. Chelsea Prediction
Pick: Chelsea to Win and Both Teams to Score
My Benfica vs. Chelsea best bet is on the Chelsea Moneyline and both teams scoring in this matchup.
Benfica vs. Chelsea Odds
| Benfica Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|
2.5 -150o / 120u |
+425 |
|
| Chelsea Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|
2.5 -150o / 120u |
-163 |
|
Benfica vs. Chelsea Betting Analysis
Jose Mourinho makes a highly anticipated return to Stamford Bridge as Chelsea host Benfica in their first home fixture in the UEFA Champions League.
Having suffered a 3-1 defeat at Bayern Munich, Chelsea’s comeback to Europe’s premier competition began on a sour note.
Chelsea’s form has slumped lately as they’ve won just one of their last five games in all competitions. That was a 2-1 hard-fought success against League Lincoln City in the EFL Cup.
Meanwhile, Benfica arrives on the back of a stunning 3-2 defeat to Qarabag, marking a rocky start that resulted in Bruno Lage’s sacking.
Mourinho has led Benfica to two wins from three matches in the Primeira Liga, although Friday’s 2-1 success over Gil Vicente was not totally convincing.
Given also Benfica’s historically poor record against English clubs, the ‘Special One’ must get the best out of his group of players on Tuesday.
Benfica vs. Chelsea Picks, Parlay
Leg 1: Chelsea To Win
Leg 2: Both Teams to Score
Leg 3: Over 2.5 Goals
Following Chelsea’s defeat on Saturday in the Premier League, we are backing the Blues to bounce back with a win as part of our Chelsea vs Benfica predictions. The hosts were leading 1-0 against Brighton, but a red card for Trevoh Chalobah proved decisive.
Under Enzo Maresca, Chelsea’s home form has been excellent. They have lost just four of their 31 matches across all competitions at Stamford Bridge, scoring an average of 2.26 goals per game. In 2025, they have had more xG than their opponents in 15 of their 17 home matches.
Benfica have seven points in three matches under Jose Mourinho, but they were fortunate to beat Gil Vicente at the Estádio da Luz at the weekend. The visitors had six more shots than the home team. Chelsea possesses far more attacking quality than Gil Vicente, so they should be more clinical on Tuesday.
Goals are not lacking on Maresca’s side. Since their opening round against Crystal Palace, Chelsea has scored in all games since. However, they remain hollow in the back. In the last five games, the Blues conceded a total of 11 goals.
Backing the home team makes sense, but due to poor form, goals remain the best option. In the last five games, all five Chelsea matches saw both teams score, while the same happened in four out of five As Aguias matches.
Benfica vs. Chelsea Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Benfica | Draw | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| 15.1% | 15.5% | 69.3% |
Projected Total Goals
| Benfica | Total Goals | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| 1.07 | 3.53 | 2.46 |
Benfica vs. Chelsea Projected Starting Lineups
Benfica
Trubin; Dedic, Otamendi, A. Silva, Dahl; Barrenechea, Rios; Lukebakio, Sudakov, Schjelderup; Pavlidis.
Chelsea
Sanchez; Gusto, Chalobah, Badiashile, Cucurella; Fernandez, Lavia; Estevao, Buonanotte, Garnacho; Pedro.
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